This report presents a summary and review of past research on the economic effects of climate on agriculture in New Zealand. These estimated effects are then compared with some new estimates that have been compiled specifically for this report.

The Ministry for Primary Industries asked climate researchers to consider what New Zealand might look like in 2100 – and the possible consequences for the country’s primary producers – should we indeed see global warming of around 4oC compared to pre-industrial times (c. 1750).

The goal of this research is to determine whether additional evidence supports the initial observation that New Zealand's pastoral production systems may have a substantially reduced ability to cope with environmental stress under elevated CO2 conditions likely to be encountered with global change.

The Ministry for Primary Industries asked climate researchers to consider what New Zealand might look like in 2100 – and the possible consequences for the country’s primary producers – should we indeed see global warming of around 4oC compared to pre-industrial times (c. 1750).

The Ministry for Primary Industries asked climate researchers to consider what New Zealand might look like in 2100 – and the possible consequences for the country’s primary producers – should we indeed see global warming of around 4oC compared to pre-industrial times (c. 1750).

The research programme explored the opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the use of fossil fuels by farm equipment and rural trucking by substitution with biofuel. Biofuel production on that scale requires purpose-grown energy crops. Our research has designed a novel energy crop production system that also reduces GHG emissions (from the manufacture of N fertiliser) by virtue of its ‘closed loop N supply’ feature.

The purpose of the project was to, in collaboration with Aohanga Incorporation, develop a science-based climate change resilience strategy for Aohanga‘s multiple owned Owahanga Farm Station and to develop a social process framework for engaging rural communities and land-owning Iwi Incorporations in climate change mitigation and adaptation.

This report reviews what is currently known about the impacts of climate change on erosion processes and control methods in New Zealand. It reviews: climate change projections relevant to erosion; information on potential impacts; identifies areas most susceptible to climate change impacts on erosion; and summarises climate change effects on erosion; while identifying future research priorities.

Scion, Landcare Research and the University of Canterbury reviewed national and international best practice in steepland plantation forests to understand and minimise the damage from post-harvest landslide and debris flows.

Note, while this document is marked 'confidential', it has since been approved for public release.

This research projects the potential distribution of four high-impact invasive species under three contrasting climate change models with medium and high emission scenarios. The pest species currently in New Zealand are Buddleja davidii Franchet and Dothistroma needle blight. The potential threats are pitch canker (Fusarium circinatum), and the insect Thaumetopoea pityocampa (pine processionary moth).

The New Zealand Integrated Assessment Modelling System (NZIAMS) was developed between July 2010 and June 2013 by researchers at Landcare Research, AgResearch, New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, and Lincoln University. The project was led by Dr James Lennox, formerly of Landcare Research, who is currently a researcher at Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in Venice, Italy. Its development was funded by the Ministry for Primary Industries.

Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect effects on livestock welfare and health. This report identifies livestock diseases of concern for New Zealand that are likely to be impacted by climate change in terms of incidence, severity or distribution. The review showed that parasitic diseases with a free-living stage and infectious disease caused by an agent that can survive outside the host had the highest climate sensitivity and are hence more likely to be affected by climate change.

This report addresses using scenarios to identify climate risks for the primary sector, different modelling methods to quantitatively estimate risk impacts and the costs/benefits of adaptation options,.and reviews indicator frameworks used by the US, UK and EU. The report recommends that risk assessment should include a range of risk drivers, including physical and socio-economic and that an indicator programme is needed.

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, risk assessment, risk identification, scenarios, primary sector, indicators

Climate change will alter land suitability for different uses globally and in New Zealand. Shifting patterns, intensities, and frequencies of rainfall, temperature, winds, storms, and distributions of pests and weeds will trigger shifts in land use in complex ways. This report assesses the implications of 11 key trends operating at broad levels and interprets them at progressively finer scales from global to local.

Researchers took data from a long-term experiment on elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) impacts on grassland and applied them to a real farm. They used an ecosystem model and a farm system optimisation model to compare the current farm with the farm in the future under elevated CO2. The future farm made more profit but required more P fertiliser, greater management input and had higher farm total greenhouse gas emissions. The next stage should be to run the farm with climate as well as CO2 changes.

Keywords: FACE, climate change, impacts, elevated carbon dioxide, APSIM, AgInform